After the fact, as Yasi hit Queensland on February 3rd, we may try to analyse what gave our amateur extreme event forecast attempt!Actually, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was quite accurate and Yasi hit exactly were forecasted apparently. SMOS also was accurate and soils which appeared to be the dryest in this area were so, meaning that runoff was not too extreme and floods were not too bad except in the south (MacKay) where SMOS reported high soil moisture levels ( see previous post)
And the smos maps are as followsSo it seems that SMOS did provide some information which proved to be correct. I am sure our colleagues at BoM will make more extensive analysis of this, as they have all the data and skills, but, from our little corner, it appears that SMOS could be used to forecast, for a given rainfall forecast, flood risks….to be continued…Claire and Yann (and BoM)